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Consumer electronics have entered a low ebb, and the iPhone cannot be sold?

Time: 2022.10.06

IPhone 14 sales performance is lower than expected

September 16 is the first sale date of Apple. The standard iPhone 14 product can be purchased in the store without reservation; On the channel side, the standard iPhone 14 even has a price break for the first time.

Three days after the first sale date, sales data showed that the sales volume of the iPhone 14 series in the first three days was 987000 units, down 11% from the comparable sales volume of the iPhone 13 series last year. Chinese consumers bought fewer iPhones than the new models last year at the beginning of the launch of the iPhone 14 series.

The iPhone, which was once very popular in the market, can't be sold now? The main reason is that consumer demand and purchasing power are reduced. Earlier, Counterpoint released the sales data of Q2 domestic mobile phone market in 2022. On the whole, it is not optimistic. In Q2 2022, the sales of smart phones in China will decline by 14.2% year on year, the lowest quarterly sales in the past decade.

Secondly, consumers are really not interested in the new smart machine products with slow product innovation. For example, the iPhone 14 has not changed its appearance for three generations in a row, and many consumers have become visually tired; The conference looks like a cool Smart Island function, but the reality is that many mainstream software such as WeChat and King Glory are not suitable; IOS 16 has no more eye-catching functions except for the increased power consumption.

On September 26, the topic of "iPhone 14 may be the worst selling model in Apple's history" was hotly discussed.

Apple cancels 6 million production increase plans

On the 28th of the same month, foreign media quoted insiders as saying that the company would cancel the production increase plan of 6 million iPhones 14 in the second half of the year because the expected demand surge of Apple could not be realized. Affected by this, suppliers have adjusted their production lines to produce high-end models.

The insider said that Apple had planned to increase the assembly volume of the iPhone 14 series by 6 million in the second half of this year. But now the plan has changed. The company has told its suppliers to withdraw the production increase plan. Instead, it will produce 90 million iPhones during this period, which is roughly the same as last year's level, and conforms to the initial forecast given by Apple this summer.

Data shows that in recent years, due to the strong demand for new flagship series, Apple will issue a corresponding order to increase production every year. For example:

For the previous flagship iPhone 13 series, Apple has significantly raised its Q2 production target, and the total production target of the Pro series has been raised by 10 million units, an increase of more than twice.

The iPhone 12 series will increase production in early 2021. Apple placed a production order of "95 million to 96 million units" to suppliers, mainly including the iPhone 12 series, but also the iPhone 11 and iPhone SE.

In 2020, Apple will increase the supplier's production capacity by 10%, and increase the order of about 8 million iPhone 11 series.

Or affected by the news of production reduction, all Apple concept stocks fell in the morning of the same day. As of the noon closing, the Hong Kong stock Apple concept fell 2.42%, with more than 107 falling.

Does that mean that smart phones are ushering in a downturn?

In response to this problem, Wei Zhejia, president of TSMC, explicitly admitted in July that the demand for consumer electronics was weak, and some customers were facing inventory adjustment. However, he did not see the inventory adjustment of high-end mobile phones, nor did he see the inventory increase in this field.

Wei Zhejia said frankly that the uncertainty of the macro environment will last until next year. Even if the short-term environment is facing headwinds, the growth of semiconductor structural demand will continue in the next few years. In the data center, 5G and other applications, semiconductor silicon content will continue to increase, and we are confident about the long-term outlook.